Worlds biggest and brightest financial institutions on their calls for tonight

1. TD: Jan taper announcement
2. Citi: Dec taper 40%
3. BNP: No Dec taper, Mar is baseline
4. Barclays: Mar taper, tho NFP increased Dec odds
5. Goldman: 7.0% unemp Fed suggested would stop QE. Tapering in March
6. Nomura: Expects first taper to occur at Jan meeting
7. HFE: Nov NFP adds fuel to the fire for the pro-taper camp
8. MS: odds more towards a Jan start relative to our March base case
9. Credit Suisse: increased Dec odds, but look for Jan taper
10. Pierpont: no Dec taper.
11. DBank: Dec taper, $10B Tsys
12. Jefferies: $5B Dec taper. CRT: no boost to odds of a Dec taper
13. BMO: lifts Dec tapering odds, but still lean toward a January shift
14. JPM: Dec taper close call, but Fed will hold off till Jan
15. BOFAML: 15% chance taper Dec, 30% Jan, 35% March, 20% later
16. RBS: Core view for no taper in December
17. Soc Gen: Thinks January is more likely

Only two of the seventeen here are looking at a taper tonight, and six go for Jan (albeit while being very flakey over the matter). Three go for March and the others either sit on the fence or have made no calls. So what can we gauge from all that wonderful analytical experience? Sweet Fanny Adams as usual. None of them or us have an effing clue what’s going to happen.

I think whatever happens we’re going to get a knee jerk reaction.

No taper and the dollar gets sold. Anything 100+ pips lower in USD/JPY will have me scaling in longs on the basis I’ve just said.

On a taper the dollar will likely be bought. Is a sell off in the Euro going to last given it’s back to it’s teflon best? We do a lot of moaning about how strong it always is yet very few of us jump on such strength. Again, a decent sell off may give us a good opp to get on board.

I always like to take a step back and gauge the overall picture so that I get a general idea of direction, and so I see that whatever happens the market is pricing in a taper more and more as the months roll on. It’s like a wedge on a chart in that sooner or later we’ll hit the break point. The closer we get to that point the less room and opportunity we’ll get to jump onboard what could be the next big move. Forget the taper, the real question is whether the US is really going to recover well. If it is then QE and the taper will become by-products of what will happen in the markets. It all tells me that the risk reward is from playing the long side for the medium term. If a proper sustained recovery takes hold the market will be looking at rate rises no matter what Ben, Janet or Uncle Sam says. That’s the nature of the beast.

And that’s the beauty of the markets folks. Whatever transpires tonight we will get ample opportunities going forward. It’s going to be fun one way or another. If you’re sitting on your hands then make sure you’ve got a few cold ones in the fridge. If you’re trading over the event, the very best of luck to you.

GOLD what will do next ?????????

Reasons Why You Should Sell Gold

I just read two interesting article on gold. One was in Wall Street Daily, by Louis Basenese. He made a good case for the possibility of gold prices declining significantly in the coming months.

These were his reasons:

• Since February 2009, assets in the world's largest gold fund -- SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) -- fell by $17.5 billion.
• So far this year, exchanged-traded funds have sold more than 20% of their total holdings of gold. That's equal to more than 500 tons of the precious metal.
• The number of hedge funds investing in gold recently dropped to the lowest level since 2010.
• Banks aren't using their muscle to protect the price of gold. Instead, firms such as Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs are lowering their price targets for gold.
• The Swiss bank lowered its price target for gold from $1,750 to $1,050 per ounce. It's now advising high-net-worth clients to avoid gold, according to reports in the Financial Times.
• Chinese and Indian investors -- usually strong buyers of gold -- haven't rushed in to buy at current prices.

The bottom line: Right now, far more people are selling gold than buying it.

Reasons Why You Should Buy Gold

The second essay was in Laissez Faire Today. It was by Frank Holmes, who argued that the long-term price of gold is likely to go higher.

He reminded his readers of three facts...

• You can't print more gold. The Federal Reserve continues to print 85 billion new dollars every month. And research has found that the price of gold moves in near lockstep to each increase in the Fed's balance sheet.
• Central bankers view gold as a currency. The World Gold Council (WGC) reported that in 2012, central banks purchased 535 tons of gold, when only a few years ago central banks were net sellers of it. Central banks love these corrections, as they can purchase gold at cheaper prices.
• Indians and Chinese still love gold. The "Love Trade" is the buying of gold out of an enduring love for it. This is the case with China and India. The precious metal has been intertwined with their culture, religion, and economy for millennium. Together, they make up almost half of gold demand.
• On the other hand, too many people make gold investments out of fear (called the "Fear Trade") that rising debt levels and weakening currencies may result in government fallout.

Who Is Right?

When I read Baseness's essay, I thought, "That makes sense." But when I read Holmes' essay, I had pretty much the same reaction.

Part of the reason these different viewpoints batter me around is because I am not an expert in gold. The other part -- and this is the more important part -- is that I don't believe either of these experts has a crystal ball.

The price of gold may drop a great deal or it may climb back beyond its all-time high. I don't know.

I believe his assessment because this has been my experience and because logic tells me there are simply too many variables at play when you are talking about asset prices. By "too many," I mean millions.

This brings me to the conclusion that I cannot and will not ever be able to know with any certainty the future price of gold. But that conclusion doesn't mean I won't buy gold. It means that I will treat my gold purchases as insurance, not as an investment.

Said another way, I don't consider gold a way to make money. I consider it a way to protect myself from my ignorance

How Ben Bernanke Is Manipulating Your Income

 

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It's no secret that Ben Bernanke, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, has been manipulating markets for the last several years. More specifically, the Fed has been actively influencing prices of income-producing assets, with the stated purpose of "stimulating the economy."

The effectiveness of the Fed's actions has been debatable at best. The US's economic recovery has been slow and feeble. And if you look behind the headlines, you'll find that the term "recovery" is probably too generous to use.

The one area in which the Fed HAS been effective is in keeping interest rates extremely low. As I'll explain in a moment, the Fed has actively manipulated interest rates, which in turn affects the prices of a broad assortment of asset classes and investment opportunities.

If you are one of the millions of investors who count on regular income from your savings or investment portfolios, you have the Fed to thank for the difficulty you currently have in generating reliable dividends or interest payments. But today, we're on the cusp of a dramatic shift in policy...

This shift will have a material effect on your ability to produce income from your retirement account, from the savings you have carefully set aside, or from your traditional investment account. Investors who understand the dynamics behind this shift will be well positioned to capitalize on tremendous income opportunities.

On the other hand, those who are caught unaware could see their account balance stagnate – or worse yet, take a significant haircut.

Let me explain how the Fed's manipulation strategy works...

Forcing Investors to Take Risks

It may sound counterintuitive, but Ben Bernanke and the Federal Reserve want you to take on more investment risk...

Hi, I'm  Suraj Tiwari My job in running this Blogg is to help investors like you invest in the very best income-producing opportunities available. There are a number of great companies that have stable businesses and that pay healthy dividends every quarter (and, in some cases, every month).

As a general rule, income investing is a relatively low-risk way to generate necessary cash flow from your investment portfolio, while protecting the underlying balance of your account. But over the past few years, Bernanke & Co. have made the business of income investing a bit more challenging.

Sure, there are DEFINITELY great income opportunities (and we are holding a number of strong dividend-paying stocks in our account right now). But today's income investor needs to use a little more finesse and discretion due to the Bernanke manipulation strategy.

You see, the Fed doesn't particularly like income investors... The Fed would rather you put your money in more speculative stocks – because it believes that if investors allocate their capital to companies that are more speculative, it will help the economy grow faster.

I'll save my outrage for another day... Let me just say that the Fed doesn't have a RIGHT to tell you or me where to invest our capital. And if growth opportunities are enticing enough to deserve capital from investors, growth stock investors will recognize the opportunity and naturally allocate their investment dollars to the right place!

Back to the Fed... At this point in time, the Fed is buying $85 billion worth of Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities per month. This bond purchase program has manipulated interest rates, causing them to sit at historic lows for several years now.

Income investors (including institutional investors such as pension plans, endowments, insurance company portfolios, etc.) have found it impossible to generate needed income because rates have been so low. So instead of buying bonds, many of these investors are moving capital "out on the risk curve" to dividend stocks. This is the only way that they can generate enough income to meet their obligations!

As more investment capital "reaches for yield" (or buys increasingly risky stocks in order to get dividend payments), dividend stocks have moved higher. With prices high, dividend investors have been forced to take more risk yet have received less income for every dollar invested. This is how the Fed is manipulating markets and forcing income investors to opt for more speculative stocks to invest in.

To be sure, the last few years have been very difficult for income investors. But all that is changing as we speak...

A Dramatic Shift in Policy

Last month, the environment for dividend stocks took a dramatic turn.

This shift happened when Ben Bernanke issued comments about the Fed's plans to "moderate" the bond purchase program over the next few months. At this point, it appears that the Fed will begin tapering the $85 billion monthly purchase program this fall, with the ultimate goal of shutting the program down entirely next year.

Ben's comments caught investors off guard. Up until this point, the Fed had been adamant that it would do "whatever it takes" to prop up the economy and keep interest rates low.

As traders anticipate the new shift in policy, interest rates are already beginning to rise. After all, if the Fed has now decided NOT to support the bond market with $85 billion per month, there is a strong likelihood that bond prices will fall and corresponding interest rates will rise. Already, we are seeing the highest mortgage rates since July 2011!

As interest rates rise, the effect is quickly spreading to dividend stocks. Remember, institutional investors who would normally be invested in bonds have moved out on the risk curve to buy dividend stocks. Now that rates are higher (and bonds are producing more income), these investors are starting to move capital back out of dividend-paying stocks.

The bottom line is that Bernanke's manipulation made for a difficult environment for dividend investors for several years. Now his comments are throwing the market into chaos as investors try to figure out what the Fed will do over the next few quarters.

For the time being, the Fed's action adds a lot of uncertainty for income investors. But ultimately, the Fed's exit from its bond-buying program will be a tremendous opportunity for us as dividend and income investors...

You see, with the Fed no longer propping up bond prices, interest rates will be allowed to float toward more natural levels. This will cause the equilibrium between bond investors and dividend stock investors to level out to a more appropriate level.

Over the next few months, I anticipate being able to buy some tremendous dividend stocks – at very attractive prices. In fact, right now, I'm doing my research on a new batch of dividend-paying companies that are experiencing strong growth and should be even more attractive as the Fed tapers its bond purchase program.

We Are Not Responsible

We are not responsible!

The UPA Government has earned itself the dubious distinction of involvement in several large corruption scandals. Each time various Government functionaries absolve themselves of all responsibility. Perhaps it should admit being an irresponsible Government, which it is.

The latest is the scam at the National Spot Exchange Limited (NSEL). When a group of investors, with an aggregate Rs 5,500 crores stuck in the exchange, complained to Arvind Mayaram in the Ministry of Finance, the expected answer was that his Ministry was not responsible. It was the Ministry of Consumer Affairs that was, under whose jurisdiction the regulator, Forward Markets Commission (FMC) was supposed to be responsible for regulating the exchange. But FMC Chairman claims he is not responsible, as he was appointed regulator but without power! The question, raised by these columns earlier, and unanswered is, who permitted the NSEL to start operations, without first authorising a regulator to regulate its operations? 

Imagine the chaos that would ensue if each regulator took a similar stance. What if the RBI shirked responsibility of a banking fraud and claimed it was not responsible? What if SEBI maintained that it was powerless against a company who, e.g. had raised money through an IPO and misused it? Is it any wonder, then, that individuals repose their faith in gold and not in paper assets? If the Government is genuine, it has to protect investors, else it will incur their wrath prior to a general election. 

Echoing the sentiment, the NSEL says it is not responsible. The top management has been sacked, which is a gesture by the promoters of the Exchange to shirk responsibility for the actions of a management they appointed.
Let's look at other examples of shirking of responsibility. 

The Finance Minister says that it is not responsible for the state of the economy, which is in dire straits. It is not responsible for the high fiscal deficit or for the unsustainably high current account deficit. For the latter, it is the citizen, with his penchant for gold, explained above, who is responsible! For the poor GDP growth it is the companies who are responsible, for going slow on investment, and not the Government, which has blocked several permissions required for the investment. The National Highways Authority of India has had to cancel 6 road projects because of not being able to get land acquisition clearance. But, of course, the Government is never responsible.

Consider the depreciating rupee. In 1947, when India became independent, the Rupee was equal to the US $. It is now Rs 65/$. So in 66 years, the currency has depreciated 65 times. The value of the currency is related to productivity of the country. This means that India has, since independence, sharply declined in productivity. The Congress party has been in power for over 75% of the time during these 65 years. But, of course, it is not responsible!

The falling rupee will, obviously, lead to inflation. Crude oil, as well as gas, translated to INR, would be more expensive. This would mean that all petro products, petrol, diesel, LPG, kerosene, would cost more, and so will power from gas based plants. So the subsidies on the petro products and power will shoot up, and, in a bid to contain them, the Government will raise prices, with the velvet glove admonition to 'kindly bear with us'. Corporate profits will be hit by the hike in costs, combined with the higher interest rates which are the consequence of a badly managed economy. Of course, the Government is not responsible. 

This is a criminal misallocation of resources. The national productivity rises when children are given a proper education and training and when laws and regulation are conducive to economic acitivity and growth. Not when subsidies are given for people to drive cars in. Annual sale of cars is under 4 m., or 0.08% of our population. The Government subsidises them instead of spending money on better education.
Only a few countries are teaching their children how to think. These include Finland, Poland, Japan, South Korea and Canada, who consistently score high on the PISA test. India scores poorly. Children become smart, and, later, productive, when they are challenged to think for themselves. In India the Government has cleared the way for all to be promoted. This does not challenge them to think. They are not as productive as they can be. Without productivity, the nation slips. The currency weakens. Other countries race ahead. But the Government is not responsible.
So tyrannical are the rules and laws in India, and so subjective, that we destroy our own industries and encourage the brightest to go abroad. 

The sugar industry, one of the most controlled industries, is being killed. Prices for sugar cane are fixed by both the Centre and the States, both competing with each other to increase prices, never mind the viability of the sugar factories. They set high prices to get farmer votes; the cost is borne by the mills. The mills are going bankrupt. Bad politics drives away good economics. But the Governments are not responsible. 

Another example is that of iron ore exports. These were banned after cases of illegal iron ore mining (corruption, again, in various states like Karnataka and AP) were discovered. It is easy to ban, or destroy. It is not easy to rebuild. The drop in iron ore exports is a contributory factor to the Current Account Deficit. It has led to a loss of jobs. And to a fall in production of steel. Is anybody reviewing the export ban? Or is nobody responsible?
Well, companies like Tata Steel have, in partnership with a Canadian company, set up an iron ore project in Canada, and has already got permission. (South Korean Posco, after an 8 year wait in Odisha, has not). If a large FDI proposal such as Posco comes in it eases pressure on the rupee. But there is no thinking in Government. As this article in the Economist points out, economic activity is being shifted out of India. 

America is anticipating an economic boom, predicated largely on a boom in output of shale gas, using a technology called hydraulic fracking. Now it is not the availability of technology that is preventing the search for shale gas in India. Technologies can be bought, or obtained, or developed. Rather, it is ownership rights. In the US, the land owner has the right to everything on, or under, his land. In India it is the Government. As a result, the prospectors for oil and gas, can deal with land owners and sign contracts for exploiting the gas below their lands. And finds a lot of it, lowering gas prices and incentivising producers of energy dependent steel, fertilisers, metals, etc, to relocate to the US and create jobs and growth. 

In India, the Government claims right to any resource under the ground of property belonging to any individual. It auctions the right to hunt for oil/gas, creates a huge mess in the pricing of it. Production drops and prices rise. The fall in production leads to higher imports, a higher current account deficit and a falling currency. 

So, what is important to the Government? Is it the ownership of resources under individual land or is it the possibility of larger oil/gas finds and an easing of economic problems? A responsible Government would know the right answer. There is something strange happening in the gold market, as per this blog. Export of gold from London (where it is not mined, but, rather, held as a backing for gold ETFs) has zoomed, to Switzerland. In 2012 exports were a mere 92 tonnes. In the first half of 2013 it is 797 tonnes. It appears that this gold is being melted to smaller sizes for export to Asia. Presumably most of it is smuggled into India, as import duties have been myopically hiked. There is another interesting article titled 'Hawala Logic' by Anand Ranganathan, which points to the sharp fall in the rupee versus the US $ in the months preceeding a general election, presumable to fetch more rupees when the $s stashed abroad are brought back. The only exception was when the BJP was in power in 2004 and the rupee appreciated. 

It is possible that the Government may announce another amnesty scheme, in which those with funds stashed in Swiss banks and other offshore centres (which the Supreme Court is insisting on taking action agains) can be brought back with a smallish penalty. The fall in the rupee more than pays for the penalty. Then the Government will take credit for the strengthening of the rupee. The stockmarket, where the money will be invested after the recent fall, could bounce back, and everyone will sing happy days are here again. This is just a hypothesis. 

Last week the BSE-Sensex lost 79 points to close at 18,519, and the NSE-Nifty dropped 36 to end at 5,471.
International factors are ominous. As per this blog 'What Happened in 1987' the current rally since 2012 in US markets is driven entirely by valuations, and not by earnings. The US Fed is likely to taper off its bond buying programme from September, and is to have a new boss who may be more hawkish. On the flip side, should PC come out with a disclosure scheme that would lead to funds stashed abroad coming back, it could lead to a rally. If not for that, the economy, the currency and the stockmarket would continue to slide. Of course, the Government is not responsible.

THIS WEEK IS TREND DECIDER FOR MARKET

This is an important week for the market because of the kind of macro events that are lined up says CNBC-TV18's Udayan Mukherjee. The Fed meeting on the quantitative easing and Reserve Bank of Indias (RBI) policy meet is lined up for Tuesday. Also, a lot of companies will be declaring their Q1 earnings.

A lot of measures which the RBI took few days back on the rupee will come into effect today as well. So, this is going to be a very important week for the stock market particularly from a macro point of view and also micro because of results compounded by the weak trend that we have seen over the last three days on the Nifty.

Below is the edited transcript of Mukherjees analysis of the market.

ON FEDERAL RESERVE MEET

The influence on the market will be most of the Federal Reserve for sure because we know what the RBI will do. We more or less have a sense because they have shown their hand last week or in the last 10 days but the Fed meeting is going to be very important because while we have been celebrating the fact that the rupee has come down 59 because of what the RBI has done, it has also happened because the dollar has been quite weak over the last few days.

Hence, I think over the next couple of days, the answer to where the dollar index continues to drive lower in the near-term or if it stages some kind of a pullback is going to be absolutely crucial for emerging markets (EMs) this week. It will establish the trend for August as well because EMs have not been doing very well, if one looks at the other markets around us, they have also been a bit wishy-washy the last few days. They are probably waiting to see what the Fed has to say.

By Wednesday we will probably get the big trigger for August on whether some of our currencies will get a bit more relief going into August or this is a bottom for the dollar index for the moment that starts springing back and with that EMs start to come off once again. So, that depends on what tone Bernanke takes. He cannot afford to be too hawkish for sure but how dovish he will be is going to make or break EM trend over the next two-three weeks. Hence, that is the key event to watch out for and more than the RBI policy on that will hinge how we come out into the August series.

ON AUGUST SERIES

The Friday closing was very disappointing because Wednesday and Thursday were weak and people would have expected that after the expiry, the market would have gone up a bit. It seemed like that in the morning for a bit and then it started to slide off again. So, the Friday closing would have told a lot of people that the intermediate trend or the short-term trend might have turned down.

I guess a lot of people are now beginning to look at 5,700-5,750 area again for a retest particularly if the two macro events do not pan out well for the market. It is also a bit disappointing that while foreign institutional investors (FIIs) are not doing much domestic institutions have constantly been selling for the last few days and that is little perplexing.

One explanation could be that they are making some headroom for the Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) issue. That is possible though we do not know the exact figures or it could be that the domestic redemptions for mutual funds have started with full force again for people who are debating whether this time they should be selling around 6,000. However, the breach of the last two-three days have convinced them that the market is turning again from 6,100 and that could have invited a fresh wave of redemptions.

I am quite clear which way to read this, but the liquidity parameters which have been disappointing for the last two months now, are entering August with a fairly weakish kind of outlook.

ON NIFTY

This week will be more of a wait-and-watch week for the Nifty. It came down and had a fairly weak close below 5900. I don't think even at the start of last week people were talking about sub 5900 kind of levels because the conviction was very high about the Nifty being at least in a 5900-6100 range and may be then even inching higher towards 6200.

This week could be volatile and there are many events which could yank the market either way. If the Fed comes out with a very dovish kind of an outlook, it is possible that EMs put in some kind of a rally though increasingly the possibility of that does not look very good looking at the price action on the screen. So, for now one has to work with a 5800 kind of base for the Nifty, though the possibility of going back and retesting 5700 is not very low. Though after the policy, if yields cool down very significantly or the rupee pulls back to something like 58 to the dollar, then those events can cushion the markets fall a little bit but the thing to be noted is that even without any great pressure from FII selling, the Nifty has very quickly come back to sub 5900 levels.

Hence, if for some reason over the next few days, whether it is poor earnings or RBI communication there is more selling from global guys, I think 5700 could be retested. So, things are a bit hazy but the chances of the market having turned once again from 6100 to go firmly back into that trading range certainly has grown after how the market moved last week.

ON RBI's POLICY MEET

The chances of this being a non-event are very high now because the RBI has done quite a bit over the last 10 days. It would be rash on its part to not wait to see where the rupee stabilizes before moving ahead on another very big trigger like the cash reserve ratio (CRR) hike. Hence, I think they will wait-and-watch. However, in waiting and watching they will probably guide the market a bit about any kind of change in stance because of how the rupee has moved.

Hence, if tomorrows takeaway is that the RBI is not going to hike rates anytime soon, maybe bond yields may soften down to 8 percent kind of levels that is entirely possible. At the same time, the RBI might say that one should not be hoping for any kind of rate cuts at all in the foreseeable future because it is trying to battle the currency and that will change a lot of equations because a lot of people still believe that there is room for rate cuts during the second half of the year.

If tomorrows takeaway is that rate hikes are not coming immediately but rate cuts are also not happening at all for the rest of the year, then I think the conviction in that 5 percent GDP growth number will intensify for a lot of people. So, RBI may not do something explicitly tomorrow but what it says about the future will be read very closely for people who are trying to map what growth will be like in FY14. This is because one thing is understood that the RBI will throw all that it has at the rupee to protect it at 60 against the dollar. But what it also is raising a big question mark on, is how much that will affect growth and what will the growth be for FY14 because that has ramifications for FY14 earnings growth as well. Someone just said about JP Morgan talking on earnings growth being 6 to 8 percent in FY14, 6-8 percent FY14 earnings growth cannot support the Nifty going beyond 6100.

The commentary has been quite cautious the last time it had spoken, it has not been very dovish at all and right now having done what it has done, if it does not raise rates it is possible that it says that my outlook towards policy has changed because of the way the currency has moved. So, it will not say that I don't care about growth but probably the word currency will feature more prominently in its statement which will tell the market that in its mind, a shift has happened in trying to defend the currency rather than just to accelerate growth and that may not have very good growth takeaways for the market......written by suraj tiwari

Kaise 10000rs ban gaye 4 crore sirf 18 mahino me

Kaise 10000rs ban gaye 4 crore sirf 18 mahino me

Elcide Investment Ltd:-  10000rs kaa investment 18 mahino me hua 4crore kaa.

Script:- Elcide Investment ltd

Bse Code:- 503681

LTP:- 2.73

Delisting proposal price:-11455 rs

Warren buffet ji ne kaha tha ki mai share isliye nahi buy karata ki mujhe profit ho mai mere paise aisi company me invest karata hu jo kal band ho jaye aur 5 saal baad bhi khule to mujhe koi fark nahi padta .

Upar kahi huyi warren buffet ji ki baat yaha par sahi saabit hoti hai,hum eak aise counter ke bare me baat kar rahe hai jise hum nahi jaanate but agar aapne Elcide Investment me 2 saal pahale 10000 kaa investment kiya hota to aap ke pass 4 crore 20 lakh hote.company kaa last trded price tha 2.73  11 september 2011 ko aur unhone haal hi me voluntary delisting price offer ki hai 11455rs per share ye jo valuation company kaa aaya hai ise audit kiya hai SSPA & Co, Chartered accountant.2011-2012 ke financial year me company ko 10.26 crore kaa profit tha and revenue 10.64 crore ki thi is company ki per share earning FY12 me 512.80 thi. Aur kariban 80% kaa equity capital is company ke promoters ke pass hai and 229 aise log hai jinake pass company ki 20% shareholding hai aur jinaki lottery lag chuki hai.

Yah bahut mushkil hai ki hum Elcide Investment jaisi company dhund le provided aap kuch basic stuff ke bare me jaan le aap ko jyada khusi humesha  longer period ke investment me hi hogi. Jab bahut saari compniya loss kar rahi hoti hai to investor unki current situation se unke future kaa andaja lagta hai aur door bhagta hai aise compniyo se mushikal ye hai ki log sirf price ko dekhte hai naa ki company ke valuation ko  Elcide investment bhi eak aisi company thi jise hum agar eak baar dekhe to hume kuch khas nazar nahi aata but jab hum iski intrinsic value and holding pattern ko dekhte hai to ye stock bahut bada nazar aata hai isase aapko is baat kaa andaza ho jaata hai ki agar kuch companiya haal filhaal profit nahi kar rahi hai but ye next success story ho sakti hai.

Lekin baat aisi hai ki aapko patience rakhna hoga aisi copnaiya aapko bahut lambe samay ke liye paresaan kar sakti hai apane under performance ki wajah se but agar aap long term ki hisab se soche aur thoda research kare to ye aapko bahut wealthier bhi bana sakti hai…….. Written by Suraj Tiwari     

Your Intiution as a Trader

There are about 7 billion people currently living on the Earth. Each and every single one of us has a different perspective regarding anyone and anything. Do you know why? Because everyone has slightly different past experiences and the way we see the world is determined by our memories. Without them, we don’t have a basis to compare to and without a basis to compare, we are lost. We don’t know how to feel. We perceive through association. We associate based on something already experienced.

I distinguish two types of intuition –inherent and acquired. Inherent is the one you were born with and it is the end product of hundreds of thousands of years of evolution aka trying to survive in the fields. We are wired to seek instant gratification without a deeper thought about the future consequences, we are loss averse and stubborn.

While the inherent (core) intuition is the pre-installed software, each and everyone of us is born with, the acquired intuition is the upgrade we get through life as it is based on everything we experienced. Your brain remembers everything, even if you don’t realize it. Of course you can easily recall only the most vivid memories as depending on your everyday activity the brain has prioritized what is important and what is not.

When it comes to trading or investing, there is a reason you like some patterns more than others. The question is, should you trust your intuition? The contrarian school of thought in the market teaches that you should try to fade your intuition as it usually points you in the wrong direction. This is not always the case. If you have enough experience, your intuition is your biggest edge as it recognizes combinations of patterns and factors invisible for the normal eye.

Which has stronger influence on your decision making – your hereditary intuition or your acquired intuition? For fields you don’t have enough experience with, you hereditary intuition is likely to prevail and in the many cases it will urge you to take not the most efficient step.

All of us are naturally wired to think in terms of mean reversion. This is how the nature works – everything is balanced, everything is cyclical. We tend to project the linear relationships from the physical world unto the non-linear financial world. I have had my fair share of wrong moves in the capital markets and over time I realized that mean reversion does not work for me. My experiences conditioned me to see danger or more precisely –better alternatives, where other people see opportunity. Don’t get me wrong. I am not saying that mean reversion way of thinking is wrong. There is an exorbitant number of living examples of people that have figured out how to be immensely profitable using it. I have accepted that it is not for me and decided to specilize in trend following. You just have to find what works for you.

7 THINGS FOR TRADER

7 Things for Trader

The definition of man·age:

• To direct or control the use of; handle.
• To exert control over.
• To make submissive to one’s authority, discipline, or persuasion.
• To direct the affairs or interests of.
• To succeed in accomplishing or achieving, especially with difficulty; contrive or arrange.

1. Traders must be great risk managers.

“At the end of the day, the most important thing is how good are you at risk control.” -Paul Tudor Jones

2. Traders must manage their own stress.

 Trade position sizes that keep your stress level manageable, if you can’t talk calmly to someone while trading you are trading too big.

3. Traders have to be able to manger their emotions, we have to trade our plan not our greed or fear

“There is nothing more important than your emotional balance.” – Jesse Livermore

4. Traders must manage their ego and need to be right.

“As a trader, you have to decide what is more important—being right or making money—because the two are not always compatible or consistent with one another.” -Mark Douglas

5. Traders must manage entries. When the time is right take the entry. Don’t wait until it is too late and chase, and don’t get in prematurely before the actual signal, also don’t get carried away and be to aggressive trade the right size.

6. Traders must manage the exit. Whatever our exit strategy is we have to take it. Sell at your target, exit into an exhaustion gap, or take the trailing stop, whatever the plan is follow it.

7. We have to manage our thoughts. We have to focus on what is happening right now. Mentally time traveling back into the past and reliving our losses has no value, we have to learn from  our lessons and move forward. Mentally time traveling into the future and believing that big profits await if we take a huge position size and go for it, may be the most dangerous mind set of all. We must manage our mind and focus it on following a tested trading plan.